Grasberg Accident Investigation Concludes, LME Copper Surged Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,820/mt overnight, then copper prices moved downward, touched a low of $10,762.5/mt before rising straight to a high of $10,903/mt near the close, and finally settled at $10,874.5/mt, up 1.68%, with trading volume reaching 17,000 lots and open interest reaching 323,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2512 opened at 86,790 yuan/mt overnight, touched a high of 86,850 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then moved downward throughout the session, touched a low of 86,320 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 86,500 yuan/mt, up 0.2%, with trading volume reaching 25,000 lots and open interest reaching 202,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 10, Freeport Indonesia said on last Friday that the investigation into the slurry leakage incident at its Grasberg copper-gold mine, which caused worker deaths, has been completed, and the company has received the government's recommendations for improvement. Freeport-McMoRan said in a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission that the Big Gossan mine and Deep Mill Level Zone mine in the Grasberg mining area, which were not affected by the slurry leakage, resumed operations at the end of October.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 10, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 130 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 55 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 86,360-86,710 yuan/mt. Prices rose from around 86,200 yuan/mt in early trading to 86,620 yuan/mt, then fell to 86,370 yuan/mt, and the market still showed a contango structure during the morning trading session. Shanghai saw destocking this week, mainly because downstream buyers received orders and started purchasing after copper prices fell last week, with warehouse withdrawals mainly seen on Friday. As the delivery date approaches, spot premiums/discounts for Shanghai copper have gradually increased, but with copper prices above 86,000 yuan/mt, downstream buyers still showed resistance to high prices. It is expected that the main transactions for Shanghai spot copper this week will still revolve around parity.

(2) Guangdong: On November 10, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 100 yuan/mt to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 40 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 170 yuan/mt to a discount of 130 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 150 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 86,450 yuan/mt, up 535 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 86,340 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, inventory increased significantly, and suppliers were eager to sell, leading to a significant decline in spot premiums.

(3) Imported copper: On November 10, warrant prices were $28-40/mt, QP November, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $38-48/mt, QP November, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was at -$14/mt to $4/mt, QP November, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day. The quotes refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 10, the futures closing price was 86,530 yuan/mt, up 710 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was 55 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,100-78,300 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,394 yuan/mt, up 406 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,590 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend today, with the price center higher than yesterday. As suppliers of recycled copper raw materials are bullish on future copper prices, they are unwilling to sell excessively. Therefore, many secondary copper rod enterprises need to offer higher prices to procure recycled copper raw materials.

(5) Inventory: On November 7, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 375 mt to 136,275 mt; on November 10, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 395 mt to 43,789 mt.

Price: On the macro front, Senate Republican Leader Thune stated that an agreement had been reached to ensure the passage of a government shutdown deal, and the US government would end the shutdown and resume operations, easing market risk-off sentiment and providing support for copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, imported cargoes and state-owned cargoes saw concentrated arrivals, but supply of high-quality copper remained tight. Demand side, downstream orders improved after copper prices retreated, and market procurement sentiment showed signs of recovery. Inventory side, as of Monday, November 10, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China decreased by 7,400 mt WoW to 195,900 mt. Overall, influenced by the easing of macro risk-off sentiment, copper prices are expected to remain supported today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]